Although there are some swings and roundabouts in the equation there’s no denying Tesla’s strong sales performance in the first quarter of 2026.

According to Electric Vehicle Council data, local year-on-year sales for the pioneer EV maker are up no less than 40.7 per cent to 7260 registrations to the end of March 2026 versus 5160 for the same period in 2025.

And Tesla was knocking on the door of the top 10 sellers for March, its 3485 total for the month within sniping distance of MG in tenth (at 4218 units).

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But there’s a distinctly different story for the two models the brand currently offers in Australia, with the long-serving Model 3 sedan down 33.4 per cent for the first three months (1363 units vs 2046) and the Model Y medium SUV up a whopping 89.4 per cent (5897 units vs 3114).

While steep fuel price rises have significantly lifted overall EV sales, Tesla’s turnaround marks a solid comeback from a less than stellar 2025, during which the brand’s local sales fell by just under a quarter compared to 2024 (28,856 units vs 38,347).

And it’s worth noting that 2024 Tesla figure was itself down just under 17 per cent from 2023’s 46,120 unit total. 

Tellingly, established Model 3 competitors are down from their relatively modest base sales; the BMW i4 20.4 per cent behind for the first quarter (246 vs 309) and the Hyundai Ioniq 6 down 61 per cent (17 vs 44).

 

2026 Tesla Model 3

 

2026 Tesla Model 3

 

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But the big clue to the Model 3’s decline comes in the shape of the BYD Seal, up a staggering 209.3 per cent (934 vs 302) with the Polestar 2 13 per cent ahead (139 vs 123).

Alternately, several of the Model Y’s key rivals declined in Q1 with the Hyundai Ioniq 5 down 54.5 per cent (115 vs 253) and the Kia EV5 1.6 per cent behind (1148 vs 1167).

But others (operating from much smaller bases) have eclipsed even the Model Y, including the Cupra Tavascan up 366.7 per cent (112 vs 24), Skoda Enyaq up 129.1 per cent (126 vs 55), Subaru Solterra up 246.5 per cent (149 vs 43) and Toyota bZ4X up 300 per cent (840 vs 210) as well as the VW ID.4 up 243 per cent (429 vs 125) and ID.5, 101.4 per cent ahead (143 vs 71).

 

2026 Tesla Model Y

 

2026 Tesla Model Y

 

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With the current shipping blockade in the Strait of Hormuz further unsettling global oil supply and impacting local fuel prices, it will be interesting to track what is set to be Tesla’s strengthening performance as the year progresses. 

CarsGuide contacted Tesla Australia for comment on the brand’s sales performance.